The FOSH is harnessing the power of the ARRIAGA Rankings to simulate the NCAA women's water polo postseason. ARRIAGA will crunch the numbers and produce results for each conference tournament and use those results and previous rankings to set the field of nine NCAA Championship teams. At the national tournament, ARRIAGA will kick it up a notch and produce complete results. Check back every weekday through April 2, 2020 for updates.


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Conference Championships

Golden Coast Conference

Release Date: March 18, 2020
Champion: Fresno State
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Fresno State Bulldogs 1 7
2-1-1-2-0-1--7
San Diego State Aztecs 2 6 2-1-1-2-0-0--6
Championship Game Final/OT
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Fresno State
4 Cal Baptist
2-2-1-2--7
1-1-1-1--4
Semifinals 2 Loyola Marymount
3 San Diego State
3-0-1-0--4
3-2-3-3--11
Quarterfinals 1 Fresno State
8 Concordia
3-4-3-4--14
0-1-2-1--4
Quarterfinals 4 Cal Baptist
5 Pacific
1-3-2-3--9
2-2-0-3--7
Quarterfinals 3 Loyola Marymount
6 Santa Clara
4-2-2-3--11
0-3-1-1--5
Quarterfinals 2 San Diego State
7 Azusa Pacific
4-3-5-2--14
0-2-1-1--4

Big West

Release Date: March 19, 2020
Champion: Hawai'i
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine 1 13
2-4-3-4--13
Long Beach State Beach 6 5 0-2-2-1--5
Championship Game Final
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Hawai'i
5 UC Davis
3-2-4-2--11
0-0-3-2--5
Semifinals 6 Long Beach State
2 UC Irvine
2-2-1-2--7
2-1-1-0--4
Quarterfinals 1 Hawai'i
Bye

Quarterfinals 4 UC Santa Barbara
5 UC Davis
1-1-0-3--5
2-1-2-1--6
Quarterfinals 3 UC San Diego
6 Long Beach State
0-1-2-5--8
2-2-1-4--9
Quarterfinals 2 UC Irvine
7 Cal State Northridge
1-5-5-4--15
1-2-3-0--6

MAAC

Release Date: March 20, 2020
Champion: Marist
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Wagner Seahawks 1 4
2-0-2-0--4
Marist Red Foxes 2 7 2-1-2-2--7
Championship Game Final
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Wagner
4 Iona
5-2-6-6--19
0-1-0-1--2
Semifinals 2 Marist
3 VMI
3-4-4-2--11
0-0-1-1--2

MPSF

Release Date: March 23, 2020
Champion: Southern Cal
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Southern Cal Trojans 1 7
4-2-1-0--7
UCLA Bruins 2 3 1-1-0-1--3
Championship Game Final
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Southern Cal
4 Cal
3-3-2-5--13
1-2-1-1--5
Semifinals 3 Stanford
2 UCLA
1-2-1-1--5
1-2-1-5--9
Quarterfinals 1 Southern Cal
Bye

Quarterfinals 4 Cal
5 Arizona State
1-2-1-3--7
1-1-0-0--2
Quarterfinals 3 Stanford
6 Indiana
2-3-5-2--12
0-2-2-0--4
Quarterfinals 2 UCLA
7 San Jose State
2-4-4-3--13
1-1-2-2--6

WWPA

Release Date: March 24, 2020
Champion: Cal State Monterey Bay
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Cal State Monterey Bay Otters 4 8
0-6-1-1--8
Sonoma State Seawolves 2 7 2-3-0-2--7
Championship Game Final
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Cal State East Bay
4 Cal State Monterey Bay
3-1-1-1--6
0-3-2-2--7
Semifinals 3 Salem University
2 Sonoma State
2-2-2-3--9
3-2-3-2--10
Quarterfinals 1 Cal State East Bay
8 McKendree
4-3-1-3--11
2-2-0-1--5
Quarterfinals 4 Cal State Monterey Bay
5 Mercyhurst
1-1-0-3-0-1-1--7
1-0-1-3-1-0-0--6
Quarterfinals 3 Salem University
6 Fresno Pacific
3-4-1-4--12
0-2-4-2--8
Quarterfinals 2 Sonoma State
7 Gannon
2-4-2-7--15
1-0-0-0--1

CWPA

Release Date: March 25, 2020
Champion: Michigan
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Michigan Wolverines 1 10
3-3-1-3--10
Harvard Crimson 2 6 0-1-2-3--6
Championship Game Final
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Michigan
4 Brown
0-0-4-3-3-0--10
2-3-1-1-0-0--7
Semifinals 3 Princeton
2 Harvard
1-2-0-1--4
2-1-3-2--8
Quarterfinals 1 Michigan
Bye

Quarterfinals 4 Brown
5 Bucknell
2-1-3-1--7
2-2-1-1--6
Quarterfinals 3 Princeton
6 George Washington
0-2-5-0--7
2-1-1-0--4
Quarterfinals 2 Harvard
7 St. Francis (PA)
2-3-4-3--12
1-0-2-1--4

CWPA DII

Release Date: March 26, 2020
CWPA DIII Champion: Austin College
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Austin College Kangaroos 1 13
3-3-4-3--13
Grove City Wolverines 3 6 4-1-5-0--10
Championship Game Final
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Austin College
4 Wittenberg
2-3-4-5--16
0-1-0-0--1
Semifinals 3 Grove City
2 Macalester
4-4-3-4--15
6-4-1-3--14
Quarterfinals 1 Austin College
8 Monmouth
4-5-5-5--19
0-2-0-0--2
Quarterfinals 4 Wittenberg
5 Carthage
1-2-5-6--14
1-1-3-1--6
Quarterfinals 3 Grove City
6 Connecticut
3-5-4-3--15
1-2-2-2--7
Quarterfinals 2 Macalester
7 Washington & Jefferson
1-4-1-4--10
3-2-2-1--8
Play-in Round 8 Monmouth
9 Penn State Behrend
0-4-1-2-2-0--9
2-3-1-1-0-1--8
Play-in Round 7 Washington & Jefferson
10 Utica
4-1-3-3--11
2-1-4-2--9

SCIAC

Release Date: March 26, 2020
SCIAC Champion: Pomona-Pitzer
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens 1 10
3-1-2-3-0-1--10
Cal Lutheran Regals 2 9 3-0-4-2-0-0--9
Championship Game Final/OT
Round Teams Result
Semifinals 1 Pomona-Pitzer
4 La Verne
4-2-4-2--12
1-3-1-3--8
Semifinals 2 Cal Lutheran
3 CMS
1-0-4-5--10
2-1-0-1--4

NCAA DIII Championship

Bracket Announcement

Release Date: March 27, 2020
No. 1 Seed: Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC Champion)
No. 2 Seed: Austin College (CWPA Champion)
No. 3 Seed: Cal Lutheran (SCIAC Runner-up)
No. 4 Seed: Grove City (CWPA Runner-up)

Semifinals

Release Date: April 1, 2020
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens 1 24
8-5-6-5--24
Grove City Wolverines 4 13 2-3-3-5--13
Semifinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 7:32P-PNatalie Hill1-0
1 - 6:38P-PLucie Abele (PP)2-0
1 - 5:38P-PNadia Paquin3-0
1 - 4:41P-PNohea Kahaulelio4-0
1 - 3:17GCCAlliefair Scalise4-1
1 - 2:47P-PJanelle Lewis5-1
1 - 1:51P-PJanelle Lewis (PP)6-1
1 - 1:21GCCHeather Russell6-2
1 - 0:56P-PNadia Paquin7-2
1 - 0:05P-PLucie Abele (PP)8-2
2 - 7:29P-PAnna Yu9-2
2 - 6:38P-PLucie Abele (PP)10-2
2 - 6:08GCCMichelle Danley10-3
2 - 5:41P-PJanelle Lewis (PP)11-3
2 - 5:13GCCKyra Johnson (PP)11-4
2 - 4:48P-PLucie Abele12-4
2 - 3:24GCCHeather Russell12-5
2 - 2:55P-PNatalie Hill (PP)13-5
3 - 7:08GCCReese Trauger (PP)13-6
3 - 5:45P-PAnna Yu (PP)14-6
3 - 4:49P-PJanelle Lewis15-6
3 - 3:54P-PJessie Nesbit16-6
3 - 3:25GCCKyra Johnson (PP)16-7
3 - 2:57P-PIsabella Villa17-7
3 - 1:37GCCElaine Miller (PP)17-8
3 - 1:10P-PNadia Paquin (PP)18-8
3 - 0:13P-PLucie Abele19-8
4 - 7:02GCCHeather Russell19-9
4 - 6:07GCCTia Kannel (PP)19-10
4 - 5:36P-PLucie Abele20-10
4 - 4:42P-PSamantha Martinez (PP)21-10
4 - 4:15GCCHaley Jennings21-11
4 - 3:44P-PNatalie Hill (PP)22-11
4 - 2:47P-PAllison Wu23-11
4 - 2:19GCCTessa Leatherwood (PP)23-12
4 - 1:49P-PIsabella Villa (PP)24-12
4 - 1:23GCCNadia Paquin (PP)24-13

ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Austin College Kangaroos 1 5
1-0-4-0--5
Cal Lutheran Regals 3 9 2-3-1-3--9
Semifinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 4:13CLUVictoria Meek (PP)0-1
1 - 1:51ROOSLexi Wong1-1
1 - 0:29CLUKemi Dijkstra (PP)1-2
2 - 7:05CLUVictoria Meek1-3
2 - 5:09CLUElyse Koe1-4
2 - 3:22CLUKemi Dijkstra1-5
3 - 7:32ROOSLexi Wong (PP)2-5
3 - 6:35ROOSLexi Wong (PP)3-5
3 - 5:38ROOSLexi Wong (PP)4-5
3 - 5:09CLUJessica Diaz4-6
3 - 4:40ROOSAlly DeRado5-6
4 - 7:05CLULexi Rond5-7
4 - 6:08CLUJessica Diaz5-8
4 - 5:09CLUKim Reidel (PP)5-9

Championship

Release Date: April 2, 2020

NCAA Championship

Bracket Announcement

Release Date: March 27, 2020
No. 1 Seed: Hawai'i (Big West Champion)
No. 2 Seed: Southern Cal (MPSF Champion)
No. 3 Seed: UCLA (At-Large)
No. 4 Seed: Stanford (At-Large)
No. 5 Seed: UC Irvine (At-Large)
No. 6 Seed: Michigan (CWPA Champion)
No. 7 Seed: Fresno State (GCC Champion)
No. 8 Seed: Marist (MAAC Champion)
No. 9 Seed: Cal State Monterey Bay (WWPA Champion)

Opening Round

Release Date: March 30, 2020
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Marist Red Foxes 8 8
2-3-3-0--8
Cal State Monterey Bay Otters 9 5 1-1-2-1--5
Opening Round Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 7:05 CSUMB Kaitlin Rooney (PP) 0-1
1 - 4:41 MC Viktoria Orlova (PP) 1-1
1 - 3:43 MC Justine Castro 2-1
2 - 3:18 CSUMB Cat Gillis (PP) 2-2
2 - 2:51 MC Fallon Burnworth (PP) 3-2
2 - 1:56 MC Carolyn Gauvin 4-2
2 - 0:55 MC Shinae Carrington 5-2
3 - 5:12 CSUMB Kaitlin Rooney 5-3
3 - 4:42 MC Shinae Carrington 6-3
3 - 3:50 MC Anais Mathes (PP) 7-3
3 - 2:50 MC Shinae Carrington (PP) 8-3
3 - 2:23 CSUMB Gwynne McBride 8-4
4 - 3:14 CSUMB Reagan Hart (PP) 8-5

Quarterfinals

Release Date: March 31, 2020
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine 1 12
3-5-2-2--12
Marist Red Foxes 8 6 0-2-2-2--6
Quarterfinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 7:31UHSzonja Kuna (PP)1-0
1 - 1:47UHSzonja Kuna2-0
1 - 0:53UHSamantha Malouff3-0
2 - 7:32UHLalelei Mata'afa (PP)4-0
2 - 7:02MCViktoria Orlova4-1
2 - 6:35UHBernadette Doyle5-1
2 - 5:39UHAlba Bonamusa Boix6-1
2 - 5:11MCShinae Carrington6-2
2 - 4:42UHAlba Bonamusa Boix (PP)7-2
2 - 1:57UHBernadette Doyle (PP)8-2
3 - 7:32UHSamantha Malouff9-2
3 - 4:48UHLucia Gomez de la Puenta10-2
3 - 2:26MCAnais Mathes10-3
3 - 1:30MCIndia Alter10-4
4 - 6:37UHEmma van Rossum11-4
4 - 6:07MCKathryn McCullough11-5
4 - 4:10MCAnais Mathes (PP)11-6
4 - 1:51UHSzonja Kuna (PP)12-6

ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Stanford Cardinal 4 8
4-1-0-3--8
UC Irvine Anteaters 5 7 2-2-2-1--7
Quarterfinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 7:29STANHannah Constandse (PP)1-0
1 - 5:39STANSarah Klass (PP)2-0
1 - 4:41STANHannah Constandse3-0
1 - 3:43STANFloranne Carroll (PP)4-0
1 - 3:14UCIDanielle Ayala (PP)4-1
1 - 0:28UCIElena Flynn4-2
2 - 7:04UCIPiper Smith (PP)4-3
2 - 3:52STANKayla Constandse (PP)5-3
2 - 3:24UCIElena Flynn (PP)5-4
3 - 4:13UCIToni Shackelford5-5
3 - 1:27UCIIsabel Rack (PP)5-6
4 - 7:02UCIDanielle Ayala5-7
4 - 5:39STANLexi Rowell (PP)6-7
4 - 2:55STANSarah Klass7-7
4 - 2:02STANHannah Shabb8-7

ARRIAGA SIMULATION
UCLA Bruins 3 4
1-1-1-0-1-0--4
Michigan Wolverines 6 3 0-0-2-1-0-0--3
Quarterfinals Final/OT
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 2:02UCLAAva Johnson (PP)1-0
2 - 6:41UCLABella Baia2-0
3 - 4:06UMAva Morrant (PP)2-1
3 - 2:16UMSkyler Pyle (PP)2-2
3 - 1:47UCLABella Baia (PP)3-2
4 - 3:19UMErin Neustrom3-3
OT1 - 0:35UCLAAva Johnson4-3

ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Southern Cal Trojans 2 14
4-2-5-3--14
Fresno State Bulldogs 7 4 1-1-0-2--4
Quarterfinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 7:32USCMireia Guiral (PP)1-0
1 - 4:45USCDenise Mammolito (PP)2-0
1 - 2:49USCDenise Mammolito3-0
1 - 2:21FSEmily Nicholson (PP)3-1
1 - 0:59USCGrace Tehaney4-1
2 - 5:37USCTéa Poljak (PP)5-1
2 - 4:12FSClaire Schade5-2
2 - 3:42USCGrace Tehaney (PP)6-2
3 - 6:34USCSabrina Garabet7-2
3 - 5:39USCDenise Mammolito (PP)8-2
3 - 3:45USCMireia Guiral (PP)9-2
3 - 1:53USCGrace Tehaney (PP)10-2
3 - 0:55USCDenise Mammolito (PP)11-2
4 - 6:05USCBayley Weber12-2
4 - 5:04FSEmily Nicholson12-3
4 - 2:39USCDenise Mammolito (PP)13-3
4 - 1:15FSEmily Nicholson (PP)13-4
4 - 0:49USCDenise Mammolito (PP)14-4

Semifinals

Release Date: April 1, 2020
ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine 1 4
0-1-1-2--4
Stanford Cardinal 4 8 1-0-3-4--8
Semifinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 4:15STANHannah Constandse (PP)0-1
2 - 5:41UHAlba Bonamusa Boix (PP)1-1
3 - 7:02STANHannah Constandse (PP)1-2
3 - 4:42UHLalelei Mata'afa2-2
3 - 4:15STANFloranne Carroll2-3
3 - 2:25STANSophie Wallace (PP)2-4
4 - 6:14STANHannah Constandse2-5
4 - 5:46UHOlivia Kistler (PP)3-5
4 - 3:22STANSophie Wallace (PP)3-6
4 - 2:26STANKatie Lyons (PP)3-7
4 - 1:01UHAlba Bonamusa Boix (PP)4-7
4 - 0:32STANKayla Constandse4-8

ARRIAGA SIMULATION
Southern Cal Trojans 2 12
4-3-2-3--12
UCLA 3 7 3-0-3-1--7
Semifinals Final
Prd - TimeTeam Scoring Summary W-D
1 - 5:04USCElise Stein (PP)1-0
1 - 4:34UCLARoxy Wheaton (PP)1-1
1 - 4:03USCGrace Tehaney2-1
1 - 3:33UCLAKatrina Drake2-2
1 - 3:05USCGrace Tehaney3-2
1 - 2:07USCMireia Guiral (PP)4-2
1 - 0:41UCLAKatrina Drake (PP)4-3
2 - 6:11USCVerica Bakoc5-3
2 - 5:12USCVerica Bakoc6-3
2 - 3:18USCKelsey McIntosh7-3
3 - 6:39UCLALexi Liebowitz (PP)7-4
3 - 5:12USCVerica Bakoc8-4
3 - 2:50UCLAKatrina Drake (PP)8-5
3 - 1:27USCRandi Reinhardt (PP)9-5
3 - 0:04UCLARoxy Wheaton9-6
4 - 5:14USCDenise Mammolito10-6
4 - 4:19USCSophia Lucas11-6
4 - 2:30USCSabrina Garabet12-6
4 - 1:10UCLABella Baia12-7

Championship

Release Date: April 2, 2020

ARRIGA for a Cause

When the NCAA season came to an end in an effort to stem the global spread of COVID-19, The FOSH team wanted to find a way to help our community and provide some entertainment to our fans. To that end, we are launching the 2020 NCAA Championship ARRIAGA Simulation to support two charities doing important work.

The FOSH is leveraging GoFundMe Charity to raise money for The American Red Cross and The Greater Boston Food Bank. If you are enjoying the 2020 NCAA Championship ARRIAGA Simulation, please consider donating to either or both charities. As the world copes with COVID-19, it is important to make sure that the most needy among us receive help and support during this difficult period. We appreciate your support, and hope everyone stays safe and healthy.


About The American Red Cross

The American Red Cross now faces a severe blood shortage due to an unprecedented number of blood drive cancellations in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Healthy individuals are needed now to donate to help patients counting on lifesaving blood.

Individuals can schedule an appointment to give blood with the American Red Cross by visiting RedCrossBlood.org, using the Red Cross Blood Donor App, calling 1-800-RED-CROSS or activating the Blood Scheduling Skill for Amazon Alexa.

As the coronavirus pandemic has grown here in the U.S., blood drive cancellations have grown at an alarming rate. To date, nearly, 2,700 Red Cross blood drives have been canceled across the country due to concerns about congregating at workplaces, college campuses and schools amidst the coronavirus outbreak. These cancellations have resulted in some 86,000 fewer blood donations. More than 80 percent of the blood the Red Cross collects comes from drives held at these locations.

The American Red Cross shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters; supplies about 40 percent of the nation's blood; teaches skills that save lives; provides international humanitarian aid; and supports military members and their families. The Red Cross is a not-for-profit organization that depends on volunteers and the generosity of the American public to perform its mission.

About The Greater Boston Food Bank

The coronavirus poses an even bigger health threat to our community's most vulnerable populations — low-income individuals and senior citizens.

GBFB is committed to assuring that we continue to distribute food to our partner agencies and through our direct service programs, especially those that impact individuals at high risk.

Through the compassion and commitment of our supporters, staff, partners and volunteers, The Greater Boston Food Bank (GBFB) takes a bold, innovative and multi-pronged approach to achieve our mission to end hunger here. GBFB is the largest hunger-relief organization in New England and among the largest food banks in the country. Last year, we distributed 68.5 million pounds of nutritious food to people who struggle to have enough to eat. We are committed to increasing our food distribution to provide three meals a day to every person in need in Eastern Massachusetts while supporting healthy lives and healthy communities. Our progress toward this goal is documented by town on our interactive map.

The Greater Boston Food Bank is a member of Feeding America, the nation's largest hunger-relief organization. Through compassion and action, together we can create a hunger free Eastern Massachusetts.


About the ARRIAGA Simulation

The FOSH ARRIAGA postseason simulation projects the outcome of each conference and national tournament matchup ("Team A" vs. "Team B") in the following way:

  • Offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, based on game data collected over the season to date, are used to estimate an average probability of scoring per possession for each team, taking into account the offensive efficiency of Team A vs. the defensive efficiency Team B, and vice-versa.
  • Statistical principles are used to calculate the degree to which each team's actual probability of scoring on a single possession may differ from the estimated average (taking into account that team performance can fluctuate from one possession to the next, and that there are fundamental limitations on the ability to precisely estimate a team's true offensive and defensive efficiency)
  • Using a "random-draw" approach, the outcome of each possession (goal / no goal and duration of possession) in the matchup of interest is simulated, taking into account:
    • Each team's estimated average probability of scoring per possession and the estimated variability of that probability from one possession to the next.
    • The average duration of a possession and the variability of that duration from one possession to the next (as estimated from published data1 on the typical number of possessions in a water polo match and variability in number of possessions from match to match).
  • The simulation is run for each of the four quarters of the match (with the simulation for each quarter being stopped once the total duration of possessions adds up to 8 minutes), and individual possession outcomes are summed up across the four quarters to determine each team's final score
  • In the event of a tie at the end of four simulated quarters, possessions are simulated for overtime periods, in accordance with NCAA overtime rules, until a winner is determined
1 Graham J, Mayberry J. The ebb and flow of official calls in water polo. Journal of Sports Analytics. 2016;2:61-71.